The good news is that the stability of the government is being eroded and several of its members are beginning to distance themselves from the latest bizarre moves, to criticize them publicly; a few are even entertaining the call for early elections out loud.
Journalists identified with the right disparage the government, and there's even a Bibi-ist from Channel 14 who is fed up with it. Arye Dery's political suicide over the "rabbis' law" was an extremely inelegant move, but it shows that the most seasoned figure in Israeli politics knows that the government has run its course and is trying to secure jobs for some of his voters before the whole thing falls apart.
Now for the bad news: As these words were written, another two young soldiers were killed in the futile war in Gaza. And still, most Israelis refuse to understand the limitations of military force.
Since 1967, we have been under the widespread delusion that nothing can stop the Israel Defense Forces. This delusion has given us a sense of calm and of national pride, but above all it has created a broad consensus according to which peace is first and foremost the interest of the enemy and is dependent on our generosity of heart.
One of the results of this overestimation of our military capabilities is the October 7 Hamas attack and the shock that accompanied it. But instead of reacting to the collapse of this sense of regional military superiority with a rational, sober assessment, the great majority of the right and center in the governing coalition, as well as in the opposition, has maintained its steadfast belief in the army's ability to win a decisive victory in the war in Gaza.
This is the source of the misreadings that are liable to lead us into a confrontation with Hezbollah. Hassan Nasrallah thinks Israel is planning an all-out war and is preparing accordingly. In this tense situation, and in light of the bellicose rhetoric on both sides, the likelihood of this rises by the hour.
That brings us back to the beginning. The government's stability is eroding, and the chances of its disintegration are higher now than at any time in the past eight months. We are one step from victory over the madman who controls our lives, but if there's one thing that will prolong the government's life and shorten ours, it's another war, and this one would be particularly destructive. Although U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi in Washington Thursday that it was important to avoid escalation in the north and reach a diplomatic resolution, the prime minister stopped listening to the warnings of the United States: He is much more afraid of the threats from his base.
In the war that has erupted between Netanyahu and the military, the chief of staff signalled, through the IDF spokesman, that the delusion of total victory is throwing sand in the eyes of the public. But who listens to the chief of staff when there are brave military leaders like Yinon Magal and Yair Netanyahu?
At the funeral Friday of his son Omer, the Olympic judo bronze medalist Oren Smadja said: "To the soldiers I say, do not stop until we win." And Laly Derai, speaking at the grave of her son, said: "In the name of Saadia, we demand a total and decisive victory. My son did not fall on the altar of a diplomatic arrangement, but rather for the sake of complete victory over the enemy." Who would dare tell these heartbroken parents that they have been deceived?
Now Netanyahu's fraud is expanding to war on the northern front. The military's readiness for any task the political leadership assigns it, including a war with Iran, is the new, agreed-upon balloon of lies, and no one will be willing to burst it until homes in central Israel blow up too. Any opposition figure who dares to say openly that an all-out war is beyond our capabilities at this stage, and would require the full involvement of the United States, will be accused of defeatism, leftism and an absence of patriotism.
From the beginning of the war, Netanyahu was aided by the political cowardice of his opponents. And in this way everyone participates in this collective fever dream, instead of recognizing that the war must end, and we must begin to pursue a regional diplomatic agreement – because there is simply no other option.